market review

Well, I had better report on my portfolio's embarassing performance, this last week or so. I've been reviewing all my stocks daily (quite a chore), and expect them on the whole to rebound. I sold one using a stop, getting out at the price I bought it at, which I think was a good idea, and there are some others I want to sell, or protect with stops, that is, if they go up a bit. There are also some that still looked good yesterday - some that I bought at the bottom of the market, which have been going up steadily. Of course, there was a big tremmor in the Dow yesterday. I haven't checked those stocks yet, since then, so they could now be making sell signals.

My prediction for the Dow, based on yesterday's huge fluctuation, is that it will spend some days near its recent highs, and then head lower. I was predicting a period of somewhat lower prices based on the pattern of the last several weeks. That prediction is now expanded to: prices near the Spring 2009 low, say, 8000, coming very fast, now, followed by an equally fast rebound ..., and, I guess, wild fluctuations between 11000 and 8-9000 ... before the market heads upward again. The lower price areas would be good buying oportunities, according to this theory. That should at least apply to large and intermediate size stocks. I make the prediction as a way to test my analytic method, so we can go back and look at the prediction as things play out.

Not everything seems like it's collapsing. I note some distinct buy signals in the charts I'm looking at, and then there are the thin line stocks, of which I now own maybe three, and they still look extremely potent. The hardest thing is how long it takes me to check my portfolio and watch lists. That reminds me, I was going to look for a more efficient charting program. Here's a sample buy signal: