Friday, May 7, 2010

market review

Well, I had better report on my portfolio's embarassing performance, this last week or so. I've been reviewing all my stocks daily (quite a chore), and expect them on the whole to rebound. I sold one using a stop, getting out at the price I bought it at, which I think was a good idea, and there are some others I want to sell, or protect with stops, that is, if they go up a bit. There are also some that still looked good yesterday - some that I bought at the bottom of the market, which have been going up steadily. Of course, there was a big tremmor in the Dow yesterday. I haven't checked those stocks yet, since then, so they could now be making sell signals.

My prediction for the Dow, based on yesterday's huge fluctuation, is that it will spend some days near its recent highs, and then head lower. I was predicting a period of somewhat lower prices based on the pattern of the last several weeks. That prediction is now expanded to: prices near the Spring 2009 low, say, 8000, coming very fast, now, followed by an equally fast rebound ..., and, I guess, wild fluctuations between 11000 and 8-9000 ... before the market heads upward again. The lower price areas would be good buying oportunities, according to this theory. That should at least apply to large and intermediate size stocks. I make the prediction as a way to test my analytic method, so we can go back and look at the prediction as things play out.

Not everything seems like it's collapsing. I note some distinct buy signals in the charts I'm looking at, and then there are the thin line stocks, of which I now own maybe three, and they still look extremely potent. The hardest thing is how long it takes me to check my portfolio and watch lists. That reminds me, I was going to look for a more efficient charting program. Here's a sample buy signal:

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

analyzing steep jumps

I was pretty mad when the stocks I bought didn't go up instantly, like, the next day. Having to wait around for things to happen is not part of my plan for stock market success. I know there's a way, I thought, to buy stocks that are actually ready to move immediately. I went back to the charts, determined to find it.

In the charts, I started looking at any instance of a sudden jump in price, or a steep jump. In the stocks I'm looking at, there are lots of such examples, in charts of all types, from maximum long-term charts to maximum zoom intraday charts. I was not surprised to see they all looked similar, or as I would expect them to, but ... Now, a steep jump in price represents both possible profits, if I had owned the stock when it jumped, and the breakout move which signals even larger steep jumps - possibly much larger steep jumps - ahead. But can the two be distinguished? And, also, are there steep jumps which are neither thing, neither a trading oportunity - either because they don't represent enough of a price change, because of being parts of minute intraday patterns, or because they don't last long enough to allow a profitable exit - or, in the case of breakout moves that won't result in following action, because the surrounding pattern, the pattern history, doesn't have the required energy to produce a bigger move.

Regardless, I wanted to see if big jumps in price were immediately preceeded by recognizeable patterns. I was delighted to find they maybe universally were. It's a little tricky. The thing to look for is a breakout, which is a steep jump in relation to some preceding action. Then, you need to have some basis for determining what to do when a breakout occurs. I started making a catalog of pattern types, sketching out charts in a notebook. Thirteen pattern types recorded, with one or two examples of each type. I started to feel more confidence analyzing these patterns.

Ran 2 scans tonight, one for stocks 80% down (1 new stock), one for stocks between .95 and 1, 6 stocks, 5 of them new. Carefully recorded all scan results. Marked 4 to watch. Checked the best among older additions to the list, making some notes.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

breakout moves

Go to Yahoo!. Click the Finance tab. Type stock symbol EUBK in the Get Quotes box. Click Get Quotes. Click on the little chart of the day's trading. If you get the "basic" chart, click on the Interactive link in the Charts section of the links list on the left. You should now be looking at a simple bar chart. If it's a line chart or a candlestic chart, click on the "chart settings" link, hover over Line Type, and choose OHLC. Now, choose a one year chart on the tabs at the bottom of the chart.




I chose this stock based on the data for April 23. If you hover over the data with the mouse, you can see which day you're over at the top left of the chart. Use this feature to find April 23. You can see that, on the 22nd, prices jumped upwards, far above the previous day's high, and far enough to clear a whole cluster of small tops in the previous several months's action. That's a breakout. It doesn't look that dramatic, but clearing all those earlier highs makes it significant.



Significant breakouts are significant because they are often followed by still larger upward moves. They are also significant because they are usually followed immediately by some kind of pause in the upward move, which the trader can use to buy at still advantageous prices.



The action on the 23rd is of the last type, and it typically shows up on the chart just as it does here, in the form of a shorter bar floating to the right of the breakout bar.



We now need to analyze this floating short bar more closely. Once you see the floating short bar, you can place a trade, but you also might want to look for further confirmation. If your breakout pattern is visible on a daily chart, further confirmation is visible on the intraday chart (5d and 1d tabs). But analyzing the intraday chart is somewhat complicated. Could you trade a breakout like this using only the daily data? I'm pretty sure you could. What you would do in a situation like that which you would have been looking at on the 23rd, one breakout bar and one floating short bar is: you could place an order to buy at the high of the floating bar, using a limit order, which forces the market to meet your price, so you are in control. By at latest the end of trading the next day, you would know whether you bought the stock. You might also see some action in the stock. If your chart shows action after the 23rd, you will see that action indeed followed, quite spectacularly. If you bought at the high of the floating bar, you now have a nice profit already, and the question becomes when to sell.



I selected this stock for purchase (but wasn't able to buy before its move up this morning) based on the strong possibility I see in its chart for a very large rally in a very short period of time. According to my hypothesis, certain kinds of charts show a kind of concentrated lever which can cause prices to leap upwards by amounts that would probably be astonishing to most people to think about. These charts are very often characterized by long, narrow horizontal lines at very low prices. Such lines have always looked powerful to me, right from the start of my chart studies, 20 years ago, but I was wary of them, for obvious reasons, which I'll nevertheless state: companies making these kinds of charts can be seen as being on the verge of going out of business. And these sudden jumps in price I've been talking about: can I really prove they occur? No! I hadn't learned to document my work effectively, when I was observing them in earlier days. I can't even prove to myself they once ocurred, but I know what I think I saw. And, another thing: there are ways to explain these sudden jumps in price, and the funny thin lines that preceed them. If you look at these charts, in addition to having made a thin line like that, what you'll see is much much higher than current prices in the past, before the thin line came into force. What I hypothesize is that these are companies that raised a lot of capital during an ealier boom in their stock, and then were smart enough to preserve that capital, stay in business, and continue to build the business, or organize it, during a period of depressed markets. Now that markets are becoming active again, they are in a possition to be recognized, suddenly, as, not a company going out of business, and only to be bought at the cheapest of prices, but a company capable of almost unlimited production in a booming economy.



Now, it still has to be observed that the risk in such investments is very substantial. What I've basically organized for my self is several layers of protection from risk, the very first of which is strictly limiting the size of that portion of my savings I'll invest in these stocks. I would say, sort of at a guess, I have 1/10th of my money in them, and the remaining in cash, and in trust, which can last me, spent judiciously, maybe 5 years, with no additional source of income required. It's not quite as simple as that. I need to keep working as a kind of supervisor of the family business (speaking rather metaphorically), and you, to enjoy similar security, need to keep working at your job, which you probably want to do anyway, and, if need be, your job search, until these prognostications of mine are proven true. However, I expect my $6000 investested in the market, my $1500 invested in the kinds of stocks I'm describing here, to increase ten times, a hundred times, and maybe one thousand times in value. If it increases ten times, I can invest more in the next round and pay for a modest holliday and some research expenses. If it increases 100 times, I'll be almost a millionaire, and can do all sorts of interesting things, if I keep my wits about me. If it increases 1000 times, of course, I'll be a small time tycoon. So all I need to invest to have the possibility of having in effect all that money can buy is a very small, essentially inconsequential amount.



The second layer of protection is patterns in the charts that show continuous active trading. That shows there is interest in the stock, and implies interest among market insiders, and it means you can buy and sell reliably (at or near whatever the market price is at a given moment). I also look at the fundamentals for evidence of real underlying value to confirm this evidence of active trading. Not surprisingly, when I see active trading, I find at least some significant evidence of business strength, and, when I say "some", I mean more than one thing of note at once. This has been very reliable.



Finally, I'm looking for sharply rising prices. These signal moves are small relative to the long term chart, even minute, which only shows how far prices can go, but large, very large, in percentage terms. We'll see prices double overnight on the daily chart, and, on the long term chart, you can hardly see the move. But dramatic percentage increases in price of this sort, and, especially, coming off of base type action (those thin lines, but there's more to say about this last factor) create an extremely stable situation (for reasons I will need to elaborate on in another place).



I said "finally", but there's one more layer, which is the kind of trading on daily bars or daily bars and intraday charts I described at the outset, here.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

revised scan

I've revised my scan, and am now looking at lists of stocks that are trading at or below 20% of their 1 year high. That's already true of a lot of the stocks I've been looking at, and certainly has been true of all of them more or less recently, and, mostly, more.

I've also been looking for historical examples of some of the patterns I'm basing my trading decisions on. Actually, I'm looking for stocks that at one time or another performed the way I want my stocks to perform, and closely analyzing the patterns just before those rallies. I noticed, looking at those, that some of the fast rallies in the historical record were proceeded by fast declines. For example, one stock fell 50% in a period of months, then rallied just as rapidly back. Studying the pattern, there really was a unique, distinct signal at the bottom, and another right after the bottom.

I've been checking the stocks I bought this week, though I'm only part way through the list, and they all look fine, which is nice. At the same time, they as a rule didn't rally strongly yesterday, which has me feeling impatient. So, the logic behind my research today is identifying patterns that produce rallies immediately. Well, I have some tools to identify bottoms while they're developing, and I'm aware that probably almost all rallies begin with some kind of small scale signal, so, really, the strategy for buying is waiting for that signal. Studying rallies in historical charts is making me feel more confident about being able to identify and trade such signals. The key I'm in search of will allow me to wait until a fast move is highly likely, the next day. Hopefully that will mean I can get results the next day when I place a trade, and I won't have to place trades that are likely to not move the next day, even if they are likely to move sometime in the near future.

I did also find two highly interesting patterns for trading tomorrow, in my list of 20%ers, as well as a dozen that will be interesting to watch, and this scan should produce a similar list over periods of time, all stocks to watch, by the look of it - it's a bit baffling ... I used to get long lists of worthless looking stocks when I ran this kind of scan on other platforms. Now I get lists of what look like real quality stocks. Is there something different about the scans, or is it something about the market. Maybe the recession has sort of cleaned up the trash out there. It has required a kind of toughness in companies that have been able to ride it out, right? It sure does look like a great time to be buying penny stocks. I think, though it's somewhat of an impression more than something I know, that lots of these companies would be really flying high in a bull market of the kind we've seen in past decades, while, in this market, their available at bottom fishing prices.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Sunday, April 18, 2010

sunday evening

After dinner, I placed orders for four stocks. This required reviewing part of the watch list, but mostly it was stocks marked for purchase, and everything seemed to be in order, so it went pretty quick. I did study the charts carefully to confirm my earlier observations, and make final order-type decisions. These were: two stop orders and two limit orders, one good for the day, and one until canceled. I ordered $100 worth of each, roughly.

Here's a sample stock: Mesabi Trust. They own several big mining claims in Minnessota, low grade iron ore in a range of hills, with a whole bunch of land. The company is ninety years old, and I'm looking at it as almost a utility. After 2004, the stock made a big wave up, from 5 to 30, and then it plunged all the way back to 5 in 2008. Since then, it has rallied fast back to 25! But now it has plunged through 20 abruptly.

I'm looking for a price around 15, maybe a little higher, possibly a little lower. I don't expect the the stock to stay at those prices for long, and I expect a very big and rapid rally to follow this correction, taking the stock perhaps to 100. This is a bit of a dreamy interpretation of the chart, but what I'm seeing is lots of these companies primed to leap upwards in a rebounding economy, lots of charts making strong buy signals, which could confirm that the economy is rallying dramatically, and which are, in a sense, confirmed by the very prevalence of such indications of strenghth. Of course, action in the coming days and weeks, viewed through the prism of the trades I just made, will confirm or deny the vallidity of my analysis.

chart survey day 2

I modified the last scan slightly and ran it for Friday. I started copying out a watch list from both days's results into a notebook, and I reviewed all the stocks on the two lists again closely. It sort of took half the day, but I'm still developing my technique. I plan to buy several stocks tomorrow morning - or even tonight, meaning I'll place orders for them. I found bank stocks, mining shares, specialty retail, specialty media, railroad, and broad based heavy manufacturing stocks, all at very advantageous prices and looking ready in the most literal sense to make huge advances. Some are noted for watching, or most, and I dropped a couple from the list, and then there's the immediate buys, some of which look only available at todays prices for one day.

My method has developed in the last several days. I'm now especially looking for stocks that are ready to go up dramatically tomorrow. Among the school I troll are some of those, some that will be those one day soon, some that may go up very dramatically tomorrow, or, some time, probably soon, and some that seem to need some more time, but look worth watching. Ones that look unlikely to make big moves, to double at least several times, are dropped from the list. (They'll tend to show up again, though.)

At the conclusion, there are 19 stocks on the list.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

value rich

The scan just mentioned in the previous post produced no results, but after fiddling with the criteria for a while, i settled on just a scan for stocks up 10% from the day's open. It might be the most powerful list i've looked at ever. Here are my findings:



stec, you are ready, having just made a giant wave from 5 to 40 and now you are back where the wave began, not at 5, at 10, and making big bottom fluctuations. I could try to buy you at 10, but why? I'll just buy you at today's price, 12. I'll buy you at the market today. No, I'll place a limit order at the market today, or maybe tomorrow.
late note: see results of closer study below



hafc, you sure look ready to pop, not so much in the long term chart, although I guess that's ok, but in the short term, tracking along just above a series of spike highs in a very round trough. Where would a breakout carry to? Your ultimate highs above 20 seem unlikely, and yet the lowest highs in your decline, near 5, seem too close buy to justify the power in the short term pattern. You could go to 10, which would be 4 times today's price. I think I'll chance it.
late note: events between december 2009 and early february 2010 on the daily bbi chart call into question this analysis, with prices breaking sharply down from a pattern very similar to the one i just described



cix, even though you too are getting ready to pop, I'm not interested.



ta, you are a nobody, for now



bbi, blockbuster! you again? Look at that chart, like a tai chi pose, with a neele tip pointed at 0/infinity. Your four billion dollars in revenues and 800 million dollars of debt and 100 million dollars of cash speak volumes, too. I am going to buy you, immediately. My 100 dollars is going to change into 6000. If I put in more, i could get rich, but I need an actual buying pattern, and will you produce one? This calls for a two stage strategy, a 100 dollar purchase now and maybe a biger purchase later. A look at your daily chart shows extreme value, an unbelievably great buying oportunity, and, plenty of detail in the bottom pattern, meaning you almost surely will signal a breakout and offer low risk buying oportunities.



this makes me think about stec again. looking at the chart again, i can see, in the daily charts, a real buying oportunity if there's a sharp move up to 13 or 14. Then, if we're on it, we can buy near or at 12 with a lot of confidence in a stop below, say, 11.75. this would be fantastic and well worth catching.



wyy, you, too, look dynamic, pulling back sharply, now, creating a buying oportunity, while rallying strong and steady for a solid year. will you pop? if so, by how much? it could be big ... it probably will be. what more can i say?



dble, ooh, I'm impressed. you're probably going to go from 5 to 25 in a few days, oh well



pabk
long term - looser (if you can call a behemoth that). short term - majory buying oportunity, waiting for trading signal



dne
what a laugh ... big jump in the offiing ... buy it now at .20 and place a stop at .17 ... hmm ... let's wait for a , oh .18



iva, value rich, what a laugh. i laugh at your value. you publish financial promotions. ha. i must buy you for huge gains in the near future!


this is a scan that should produce a different list every time you run it ... i was thinking of it as fishing, trolling the waters for oportunities, which this list seems to suggest are abundant

variation

After reviewing the first 40 stocks on the all penny stocks list, I've abandoned the project for now. These extremely speculative plays don't make the girl happy, and, thinking about what matters to me, I'm only interested in trades I can enter immediately, and see results in immediately. That means I am looking for liquidity, for active trading. I switched over to the java screener, which is a little more fussy to work with, a little delicate seeming, and which I don't pretend to understand, but which does allow me to focus a screen with precision, and which then does work. Scan criteria: stocks under a dollar with average daily trading volume (sic, no details provided) greater than 1 million shares. The result: a list of 14 stocks.

Monday, April 12, 2010

chart survey

Reviewed the first 40 penny stock charts. Selected several as being very interesting, maybe 10, and a number to watch, and a number not to watch, but plan to go over them all again immediately to add some of those to the watch list and even the very interesting list. Bought 1. Plan to buy another 2 right away.

Sunday, April 11, 2010

pennystocksurveyday1

1479 penny stocks (stocks under a dollar)
reviewing the very first page of twenty
out of those twenty, seven that i want to follow
and another four i'm quite interested in